Nearly 48 million barrels of Russian crude could be left in limbo as U.S. sanctions targeting Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC take effect this Friday. The restrictions mark one of the most aggressive measures by the current U.S. administration to pressure Moscow over the war in Ukraine, raising concerns over the global oil supply chain.
According to analytics firm Kpler, around 50 tankers carrying mostly Urals and ESPO grades are currently at sea or preparing to load. While some are headed toward India and China, many others have unclear destinations or are rerouting to smaller ports, reflecting efforts by traders and intermediaries to avoid U.S. scrutiny.
Indian refiners are already scrambling to secure alternative supplies from the Middle East, pushing freight rates for Asian routes to near five-year highs. Market analysts warn that if Russian exports fail to reach buyers in the coming weeks, supply constraints could ripple across global markets.
“Russian oil flows are continuing, but they are not reaching their intended destinations,” said Warren Patterson, commodities strategist at ING Groep NV. “If delays persist, it could result in reduced supply, which may unsettle markets.”
Despite the sanctions, Russia is prioritizing shipments, maintaining seaborne exports of roughly 3.4 million barrels per day. Benchmark oil prices have so far remained largely stable, though market watchers expect volatility if buyers are unable to absorb the stranded barrels.
Some vessels have already been forced to change course. The Spirit 2, carrying 730,000 barrels of Urals crude from Rosneft, U-turned after passing the Suez Canal in early November but has since resumed its journey toward India. Similarly, the Furia, another Aframax tanker, is now headed to India after a previous U-turn in the Baltic Sea.
Secondary sanctions remain a key concern for major buyers. While India and China continue to import the bulk of Russian oil, both countries are cautious about potential U.S. enforcement measures, which could complicate deals and redirect flows to alternative markets.
Analysts say the disruption is likely to be temporary, with market participants expected to find ways to reroute supplies over the coming months. “It’s painful, but only for a few months,” said Adam Lanning, senior tanker analyst at SSY. “The markets will adapt and find workarounds to keep Russian crude flowing without triggering sanctions.”
