China’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are on track to decline in 2025 for the first time since 2022, according to estimates from research firms cited by Reuters. This rare drop is driven by a combination of mild winter weather, sluggish industrial demand, and increased imports via pipelines from Russia and Central Asia.

Between January and April 2025, China imported just 20 million metric tons of LNG — a sharp drop from 29 million tons during the same period last year. Annual imports are now expected to fall between 6% and 11% from the 2024 total of 76.65 million metric tons.

“This year’s milder winter, weak industrial demand, and higher gas pipeline imports are set to result in the first decline in China’s LNG imports since 2022,” said Oilprice.com’s Tsvetana Paraskova.

Another major factor is price: piped gas and rising domestic natural gas production are simply cheaper than LNG. “These two sources of gas supply are cheaper than the LNG option,” analysts noted.

While China’s pullback may signal trouble for global LNG exporters, it spells good news for other importers across Asia and Europe. Summer demand is expected to surge, especially as North Asia braces for hotter-than-usual temperatures and Europe races to refill storage sites depleted by a cold winter.

“Demand in both Europe and Asia is set to increase in peak summer and remain high through the autumn,” the report added — a potential tailwind for U.S. LNG exporters ramping up production with new export terminals.

Even if China’s demand rebounds in the latter half of 2025, analysts still expect the country to post an annual drop in LNG purchases.