Major energy companies including Exxon Mobil, TotalEnergies, and Shell are facing potential disruptions to their oil and gas output following the U.S. and Israel’s military strikes in Iran, analysts warn.

The recent attacks, which reportedly killed Iran’s supreme leader, have forced temporary shutdowns of regional oil and gas fields and halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for Middle Eastern crude, fuel, and LNG exports.

Analysts at Jefferies note that the Middle East accounts for roughly 20% of Exxon’s and Shell’s global production, while about 29% of TotalEnergies’ output comes from the region. Exxon’s liquefied natural gas operations are particularly exposed, with nearly 60% of its LNG portfolio tied to Middle Eastern assets, according to TD Cowen.

The conflict has already pushed energy prices higher. Brent crude rose about 7% to $77.74 per barrel, while European natural gas benchmarks surged roughly 40%. This spike may help offset some of the operational risks for the companies.

Exxon, Shell, and TotalEnergies all partner with QatarEnergy, which temporarily halted LNG production after Iranian drone attacks. Qatar produces around 20% of the world’s LNG supply, intensifying the global impact of the shutdown.

Despite the regional risks, Exxon is expected to benefit from the launch of its Golden Pass LNG project in Texas later this month. Meanwhile, TotalEnergies maintains oil and gas operations in the UAE, and Shell holds significant assets in Oman.
Neither Exxon, Shell, nor TotalEnergies provided immediate comments on the situation.