The Nigerian Federal Government has set a new target for the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Ltd, aiming to reach 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by December 2025. This new target surpasses the 2 million bpd goal previously set by President Bola Tinubu.Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, shared the new goal during the Oil Technology Conference at the Africa Energy Forum in the United States. “The 2.5 million bpd oil production is easily realizable because all the bottlenecks against our oil production are being addressed,” Lokpobiri said, expressing optimism for achieving the ambitious target despite Nigeria’s ongoing challenges, including pipeline vandalism and oil theft.Currently, Nigeria’s oil production has fallen short of its OPEC quota. The country produced just 1.401 million bpd in March 2025, well below its production goal. “This represents a significant decline from 1.465 million bpd in February, highlighting the ongoing struggles in reaching the desired output,” analysts warn.With oil prices falling to around $60 per barrel, significantly lower than the $75 per barrel benchmark used for the 2025 national budget, there is increasing concern over the potential revenue shortfall. The Nigerian government had initially projected higher earnings from oil, but the drop in production and falling oil prices could lead to a loss of up to N19.6 trillion in expected revenue.Economic experts are also concerned about the currency devaluation, with the naira falling to approximately N1,600 per dollar, further impacting Nigeria’s fiscal balance. If these issues are not addressed swiftly, Nigeria’s fiscal deficit could rise to as high as N30.79 trillion, up from the original projection of N13 trillion.While the target remains ambitious, the government’s efforts to tackle oil theft and improve infrastructure offer hope for a brighter outlook in the coming months.