Nigeria’s cooking gas market experienced a sharp supply squeeze in the second quarter of 2026 as disruptions linked to the Iran conflict coincided with weaker domestic production.
Energy intelligence firm Argus said Nigeria recorded the biggest impact among the major Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) markets in sub-Saharan Africa during the period.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority showed that LPG demand dropped to 123,000 tonnes in June, the lowest level in seven months and about 23 per cent below the March figure.
Domestic production also declined by more than 20 per cent during the period. The reduction was linked to lower output from inland gas processing facilities and maintenance at the Dangote Refinery’s 218,000-barrel-per-day Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker.
With local supply falling, importers increased their purchases from the international market. Nigeria brought in about 46,000 tonnes of LPG in June, up sharply from 3,000 tonnes in May, while no imports were recorded in April.
The pressure eased after international LPG prices fell following the June peace agreement between the United States and Iran and weaker demand from Asian buyers.
The Argus butane West Africa index dropped by more than 40 per cent to $513.50 per tonne on June 24, from $860.50 per tonne in March.
The lower prices helped Nigeria move from four consecutive months of supply deficits to a surplus of about 30,000 tonnes.
Domestic production improved further in July. Supplies from the Dangote Refinery increased by 71 per cent to 25,800 tonnes, while output from gas processing plants rose by 88 per cent to 47,000 tonnes.
The stronger local supply allowed Nigeria to reduce its dependence on imports despite renewed tensions between the United States and Iran and a subsequent increase in international LPG prices.
Consumers also benefited from the recovery. Average retail LPG prices fell by 10 per cent month-on-month to N1,491.75 per kilogramme in July, while demand rose by seven per cent to 136,500 tonnes.
The developments come as Nigeria continues to expand efforts to increase access to LPG and promote cleaner cooking.
In July, the Federal Government launched the National Grassroots LPG Penetration Programme, which uses a cylinder recirculation model under which retailers are responsible for owning, tracking and refilling cylinders.
The government is targeting five million households and annual LPG consumption of about five million tonnes by 2030. About 54,000 cylinders had been distributed under the programme since its launch.
The supply disruption has also highlighted the importance of expanding storage, import and domestic production capacity across Africa as demand for LPG continues to grow.
