Nigeria’s modular refineries contributed just a fraction of the nation’s diesel needs over the last quarter, according to recent data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). Between November 2025 and January 2026, these smaller facilities supplied an average of only 2.37% of diesel consumed nationwide.
During this period, only three modular refineries; Waltersmith, Edo, and Aradel were in operation. The OPAC and Duport refineries remained completely shut, hampered by operational and crude supply challenges. Collectively, the active plants produced about 393,000 litres of diesel daily on average, compared with national consumption averaging 17 million litres per day.
Performance varied among the operational facilities. Waltersmith maintained capacity utilisation around 61–63%, Edo peaked at over 91% in November before declining, and Aradel started strong but fell to roughly 29% by January. Despite Aradel’s lower efficiency, it led output in November and December.
In contrast, larger refineries and imports dominate diesel supply. The Dangote Petroleum Refinery delivered 5.6 million litres per day in November and 10.9 million litres per day by January 2026. Imports remained high, with daily diesel imports ranging from 8.1 million to 14.1 million litres over the quarter.
The data highlight persistent gaps in modular refinery output and underscore their limited impact on Nigeria’s energy self-sufficiency goals. None of the modular plants currently produce petrol, leaving the market reliant on imports for this key fuel.
Experts, including the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN), have called on the government to support local refineries with stable crude supply and funding. CORAN stressed that smaller refineries face hurdles obtaining feedstock and essential equipment, such as catalytic reformers for petrol production and desulfurisation units for clean diesel.
The association has proposed the creation of a Midstream Refinery Development Fund to finance these upgrades, alongside pro-competition policies for fair pricing and infrastructure access. CORAN argues that boosting modular refinery output could reduce dependence on imports and foster genuine energy independence.
With January 2026 consumption figures exceeding benchmarks across all petroleum products – diesel, petrol, aviation fuel, and cooking gas – the pressure on Nigeria’s downstream sector is evident. Analysts say improving modular refinery operations and capacity utilisation is critical to narrowing the gap between domestic production and demand.
