Nigerian crude grades surged above $77 per barrel over the weekend, buoyed by rising tensions between Israel and Iran that rattled global markets and reignited fears of a broader Middle East conflict.
Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude, jumped to $78.62 per barrel, while Brass River and Qua Iboe rose to $77.09 and $77.14, respectively, according to Oilprice.com data as of Sunday.
The jump marks a sharp rally from the $65 per barrel average recorded earlier in the week and surpasses Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75 per barrel, offering potential fiscal relief in the short term.
“The geopolitical risk premium is back,” Oilprice.com noted, citing renewed market jitters triggered by Israeli military strikes on Iran and fears of retaliation.
Despite the price rally, energy analysts are sounding caution over possible downstream effects. Rising global crude prices could raise domestic fuel prices in Nigeria, since refined petroleum products are still imported and priced against global rates.
“Higher crude prices, while good for government revenue, mean refiners will pay more for the same barrels of oil,” said one Lagos-based energy analyst. “This could drive up local petrol and diesel prices unless subsidies increase.”
While the Israeli airstrikes did not directly hit oil infrastructure, anticipation of Iran’s response—which eventually occurred—spooked markets. Israel also shut down some of its gas production facilities over the weekend as a precaution.
Tensions also raise concerns about possible disruptions in critical supply channels like the Red Sea shipping lanes and the Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly 19 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for almost a fifth of global oil trade.
“Any threat to the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices skyrocketing,” a geopolitical analyst warned. “It’s the world’s most important oil chokepoint.”
This price surge contrasts with the oil slump seen in early 2025, when prices briefly dipped below $60 amid global trade tensions.
The current rally, experts say, is driven more by conflict risks than by OPEC+ production decisions or supply fundamentals.
