Nigeria’s crude oil production fell sharply by 4.37% in March, dropping from 1.465 million barrels per day (bpd) in February to 1.401 million bpd, according to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR).

The 64,000 bpd drop pushes Nigeria further below its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd and leaves the country producing 6.6% less than its target. It also puts Nigeria 32% short of the federal government’s 2025 production goal of 2.06 million bpd.Persistent issues continue to plague the sector.

“Underinvestment, aging infrastructure, and widespread oil theft continue to limit production,” the report noted. These long-standing challenges have kept Nigeria from capitalizing on its vast reserves.

The implications are significant. As oil revenues shrink, Nigeria’s fiscal stability is at risk. “Falling production, combined with lower international oil prices, poses serious risks to Nigeria’s fiscal stability,” the report stated.

This puts pressure on national reserves and limits spending on infrastructure, education, and healthcare.Despite the external pressures of fluctuating oil prices, analysts say Nigeria still has room to act.

“While Nigeria cannot control global oil prices, it can improve domestic production,” the report advised.

Solutions include cracking down on oil theft, attracting investment, and upgrading outdated infrastructure.

The data follows earlier signs of struggle. In February, production had already declined by 5% compared to January, highlighting a consistent downward trend in output.