The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) is considering easing production cuts in a move that could bring more crude oil into the global market. The decision is expected to be discussed at the group’s meeting scheduled for Sunday, September 7.

Sources close to the talks say that about nine producers within the coalition are open to unwinding part of the 1.66 million barrels per day (bpd) output reduction that was agreed in April 2023. The potential adjustment could begin in October, with a phased approach stretching over 12 months. This would mean monthly increases of roughly 138,000 bpd, although the actual effect on supply may end up being far smaller.

Delegates indicate that the group prefers flexibility, leaving room to pause, reverse, or accelerate the plan depending on market conditions. One source emphasized that the decision is not rigid, but rather a month-by-month strategy to balance stability with demand.

The proposed shift comes while several producers, notably Russia and Iraq, are still limiting production to compensate for past overproduction. Kazakhstan, on the other hand, has continued to exceed its quota and is nearing its maximum output capacity.

Despite the planned adjustment, the net supply boost could be modest, potentially between 700,000 and 800,000 bpd over the year. Analysts believe the cautious rollout serves two purposes: protecting market share for key producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and pressuring countries with compliance challenges ahead of a formal production assessment in 2026.

OPEC+ recently completed the reversal of an earlier 2.2 million bpd cut that had been in place since late 2023, though that process delivered less oil to the market than expected. With global energy dynamics still uncertain, the upcoming September meeting will be closely watched for signals on how much oil OPEC+ is ready to bring back and at what pace.