Energy analysts and climate advocates are raising red flags after OPEC’s Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais dismissed warnings of falling oil demand and instead forecast a booming future for fossil fuels at the Global Energy Show Canada.
“There is no oil peak on the horizon,” al-Ghais declared during his keynote speech Tuesday, predicting that oil demand will surpass 120 million barrels per day by 2050, a 24 percent increase from today. “The fact is that oil demand keeps rising, hitting new records year on year.”
Al-Ghais also blasted the International Energy Agency (IEA) for “flip-flopping” in its demand forecasts and warned that underinvestment in oil could be “dangerous” for the global economy.
But experts say OPEC’s bullish claims ignore clear signals of a slowdown in demand — and that the industry is facing growing financial and climate pressures.
“OPEC’s forecasting record is mixed at best,” said Clark Williams-Derry, energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). “For key trends in oil demand, such as EV adoption, OPEC’s forecasts have been consistently terrible.”
The IEA’s latest May 2025 Oil Market Report paints a starkly different picture. The agency expects global oil demand growth to slow significantly this year — from 990,000 barrels per day in Q1 to just 650,000 barrels per day for the remainder of 2025. Demand in advanced economies is expected to decline by 120,000 barrels per day this year and 240,000 barrels per day in 2026.
Meanwhile, oil prices are sliding. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is currently at $65 a barrel, with futures pointing to $59 by 2036. “This helps explain why oil prices have fallen to their lowest level in years,” Williams-Derry noted.
He also emphasized that oil is no longer tightly coupled to economic growth. “The global economy is expected to grow by 2.8 percent this year, while oil supply is only growing by about 1.5 to 1.6 percent,” he said.
Critics say OPEC’s rosy forecast ignores its own recent data. In April, the group downgraded its short-term demand outlook due to softer consumption in the U.S., triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariff war.
Stephen Legault, senior manager of Alberta energy transition at Environmental Defence, countered al-Ghais’s accusations against the IEA, saying, “Starting in 2021, [the IEA was] among the first major industry forecasters to recognize that oil consumption and, consequently, production would decline.”
“There’s no credible, independent forecast that doesn’t show oil peaking around 2030,” Legault added. “OPEC appears to be viewing the world through rose-coloured glasses.”
Al-Ghais said OPEC “takes climate matters very seriously,” but also slammed net-zero targets as “unrealistic” and “detached from reality.” That framing, critics argue, downplays the urgency of emissions cuts.
As Williams-Derry put it bluntly: “Oil supply must drop down if the world is going to avoid catastrophic climate change.” He warned that an oversupplied market will drive prices down and strain the finances of both OPEC nations and private oil firms.
“It doesn’t do oil companies much good if oil sales volumes are growing but oil prices are too low to support robust profits,” he said.
The IEA projects global oil inventories will swell by 720,000 barrels per day in 2025, rising to 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, setting the stage for further price pressure.
And as Williams-Derry reminded, quoting author Upton Sinclair: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
