Nigeria is staring down a fresh economic storm as international oil prices plummet below $60 per barrel—far below the federal government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75.

Brent crude dropped to $59.25 on Monday, triggering fears of a widening fiscal crisis.“This sharp drop in oil prices could upend our entire revenue framework,” a senior analyst at Nairametrics said, estimating that Nigeria could lose as much as ₦19.6 trillion in projected oil income.

“With current production at 1.67 million barrels per day—well under the budgeted 2.06 million—and the naira now trading above ₦1,600 to the dollar, the numbers just don’t add up.”

The crash poses a major threat to Nigeria’s foreign exchange market stability. While the Central Bank recently reported a $15.2 billion FX inflow in Q1, analysts warn those gains could quickly evaporate.Finance Minister Wale Edun acknowledged the risks and confirmed that an Economic Management Team (EMT) subcommittee is actively revising the fiscal strategy.

“We are looking at all options—boosting oil output, digitizing revenue collection, and expanding the tax base are all on the table,” he said.

Meanwhile, OPEC+’s plan to restore 2.2 million barrels per day by October, driven by Saudi Arabia and Russia, may further depress prices.

Nigeria remains largely sidelined from those benefits due to persistent oil theft and decaying infrastructure.Economists also warn the fiscal deficit may skyrocket from ₦13 trillion to ₦30.79 trillion if current trends persist.

“Something has to give,” one financial expert said. “Nigeria can’t afford to stumble into another currency or debt crisis.”