The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects global oil demand to increase by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027, significantly higher than its projected growth of 200,000 barrels per day in 2026.

In its October oil market report, the organisation forecast that average global oil consumption would rise from 105.7 million barrels per day this year to 108.3 million barrels per day next year.

The revised outlook reflects an anticipated recovery in consumption and the replenishment of oil inventories depleted during the Iran war.

According to the report, commercial oil stocks in countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development were 177.2 million barrels below their 2015–2019 average in August. Stocks of refined petroleum products were also 80.4 million barrels below the same benchmark.

OPEC expects oil demand in OECD countries to recover by about 500,000 barrels per day in 2027 after declining by approximately 200,000 barrels per day this year. Demand growth in non-OECD countries is projected at around two million barrels per day, accounting for most of the expected increase.

Gasoline is expected to lead the recovery among refined products, followed by jet fuel and diesel. Diesel demand is forecast to grow by approximately 420,000 barrels per day next year, reversing an estimated decline of 190,000 barrels per day in 2026.

However, production growth outside the OPEC+ Declaration of Cooperation group is expected to remain limited. OPEC projects that liquids supply from these producers will increase by only 600,000 barrels per day in 2027.

A further 100,000 barrels per day is expected from natural gas liquids and other non-conventional sources supplied by countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation.

This outlook would increase the amount of crude oil required from participating OPEC+ producers. Demand for their crude is projected to rise from 42.1 million barrels per day in 2026 to 43.9 million barrels per day next year, an increase of 1.8 million barrels per day.

The forecast points to a substantial shift in the global oil market, with weak demand growth expected in 2026 followed by a stronger recovery in 2027. The extent of the increase will depend partly on consumption trends and how quickly countries rebuild depleted petroleum inventories.